In November 2006, African Leadership Institute and LEAP Africa brought 35 individuals together, representing the ethnic, religious, geographic and sectoral diversity of Nigeria to develop a series of scenarios. By constructing different scenarios, the aim was to inform and engage the public and opinion leaders on the main issues that would drive the nation to one type of future, or another. It posed the question:

"How can our collective actions and omissions, in the face of external forces lead to different futures for our country? "

The 35 individuals were selected through a transparent process and guided by a distinguished Advisory Board. The scenario team comprised people from various walks of life and professions.  The members included 33 Nigerians and two non-Nigerians. For fifteen months, the team deliberated on the future of the largest black nation on earth - Nigeria; the critical uncertainties and the main drivers that will move the nation to one type of future or the other.

The results are captured in four imaginative stories - Parambulator; Shine Your Eye; Jaga Jaga Republic and We Don Win; each a plausible future outcome for Nigeria in the year 2025.

The overarching thrust of the scenarios is that Nigeria can be transformed. The scenarios highlight the critical role of the people, lay out the choices before Nigerians and outline how the actions or inactions could shape the future. The team called for fundamental change, stressing the need to make risky, quantum leaps in order to transform Nigeria's society and economy. Small, linear steps using traditional approaches, even if the steps are in the right direction, will not be enough.

You can find the outputs of the project below:

  • The Project Summary - a 31-page document that provides an overview of the project, deliberations, and the four possible futures for Nigeria
  • The Main Document - a 78-page document that delves into the social, economic and political questions facing Nigeria; Nigeria's historical impacts on the nation; and, the scenario outputs. 
  • The scenarios video - This can also be found on AFLI's YouTube channel, or watched below.

AFLI was responsible for Project Design, Facilitation and Coordination.  LEAP Africa, a not-for-profit NGO, provided administrative and management support.

Advisory Board

The exercise was led by a team of eminent Nigerians who served on the Advisory Board. They provided guidance for the exercise and support to the team. The board:

  • Mansur Ahmed - Chairperson
  • Morin Desalu - Deputy Chairperson
  • Segun Adeniyi
  • Eamon Cassidy
  • Mallam Nasir El-Rufai
  • Matthew Hassan Kukah
  • Frank Nweke Jr.
  • Adhiambo Odaga
  • Ifueko Omoigui-Okauru
  • Pat Utomi


  • Peter Wilson - Executive Director
  • Olugbenga Adesida - Associate Director

LEAP Africa Team

  • Ndidi Nwuneli - Founder and CEO
  • Mosunmola Layode - Program Manager
  • Uju Akonwu - Program Coordinator
  • Lilian Amalu - Assistant Program Coordinator
  • Abimbola Olareaju - Assistant Program Coordinator

Scenario Team

  • Fabian Ajogwu
  • Egbichi Akinsanya
  • Bemigho Awala
  • Ntai Bagshaw
  • Muhtar Bakare
  • Beem Beeka
  • Pamela Braide
  • Nadu Denloye
  • Orode Doherty
  • Cathy Echeozo
  • John Enelamah
  • Eme Essien
  • Aidan Eyakuze (External)
  • Joy Ezeilo
  • Jeremiah Gyang
  • Hauwa Howeidy
  • Otive Igbuzor
  • Rabi Isma
  • Maryam Lemu
  • Abubakar Balarabe Mahmoud
  • Yahaya Maibe
  • Zakari Momodu
  • Abdu Mukhtar
  • Auwal Musa
  • Chika Nwobi
  • Cordelia Okpei
  • Temitope Oshikoya
  • Mavis Owusu-Gyamfi (External)
  • Umar Oyekan
  • Ken Saro-Wiwa Jr.
  • Seun Tayo-Balogun
  • Hassan Usman
  • Halima Wali-Inuwa
  • Tasiu Wudil
  • Rakiya Zubairu




About AFLI




The African Leadership Institute (AFLI) focuses on building the capacity and capability of visionary and strategic leadership across the continent. Developing exceptional leaders representing all spheres of society, the Institute’s flagship programme is the prestigious Archbishop Tutu Leadership Fellowship. Offering a multifaceted learning experience and run in partnership with Oxford University, it is awarded annually to 20-25 carefully chosen candidates, nominated from across Africa. Alumni of the African Leadership Institute form a dynamic network of Fellows passionately committed to the continent’s transformation, bridging the divide between nations and ensuring that Africa is set centre-stage in global affairs.